Roughly $5 billion in bitcoin (BTC) choices contracts are set to run out on Deribit this Friday at 08:00 UTC, including to an already unstable crypto market.
Bitcoin’s extended consolidation had stored Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) in a downward pattern all through 2025. Nonetheless, after bitcoin’s sharp decline, DVOL spiked to 52 earlier than retreating again beneath 50—signaling a short lived surge in market uncertainty.
The current worth drop beneath $90,000 has left a majority of choices out-of-the-money (OTM) and merchants dealing with important unrealized losses.
An choice permits the holder the best, however not the duty, to purchase or promote an underlying asset at a particular worth inside a sure time interval.
According to Deribit data, out of the $5 billion of notional worth that is because of expire, $3.9 billion (78%) of it is because of expire out-the-money (OTM), which means these contracts will expire nugatory.
Nearly 100% of calls are OTM, that are bullish bets, as the bitcoin worth dropped considerably over the previous few days, leaving buyers with a major quantity of unrealized losses.
Whereas, the remaining $1.1 billion (22%), was in-the-money (ITM) with it being dominated with places. ITM places are buyers having their strike costs above the spot worth, which means they maintain worth.
Nonetheless, max ache is at $98,000, that’s, $10,000 greater than the present spot worth. Max ache is the value at which choice sellers, sometimes establishments, obtain most revenue, whereas patrons expertise the best quantity of losses.
Because the max ache worth is a lot greater than the spot worth, this might incentivize choices sellers to push bitcoin worth greater nearer to the ache stage, in accordance with PowerTrade.
“With the tip of the month approaching, bitcoin choices merchants ought to take notice. Max Pain for Feb. 28 sits at $98,000, with a large $5 billion notional worth. This implies the best open curiosity is clustered right here, incentivizing market makers to maintain bitcoin near this worth. Count on elevated volatility and potential worth gravitation towards this stage,” PowerTrade stated on X.
Let’s have a look at if the so-called max ache principle holds true.
