On Dec. 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju made the scary name that “most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish.”
He added, “With out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.”
The CEO was specific. He tied his argument to his agency’s composite on-chain dashboards and a global-liquidity framework, framing the November drawdown not as a wholesome correction however because the opening act of a new secular downtrend.
The query is whether or not on-chain data and the liquidity backdrop truly assist a bear cycle thesis, or whether or not Ki is reading stress signals in a bull market as the beginning of crypto winter.
The case for a new bear cycle
CryptoQuant’s metrics, akin to Bull Rating, MVRV, miner flows, and stablecoin liquidity, signal a new bear-market cycle. The numbers examine with the primary quarter of 2022, which Glassnode additionally reported on Dec. 3.
Moreover, excessive realized losses, declining liquidity, and a break beneath short-term holder price foundation add to the worrying state of affairs.
Beginning with MVRV (market worth to realized worth), which is a ratio that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap and weights every coin by the value at which it final moved on-chain.
When MVRV pushes above 3.5, the market is traditionally in euphoria territory. When it falls beneath 1.0, the market is buying and selling beneath its combination price foundation and is often at a bear market backside.
As of press time, MVRV sits round 1.8-2.0. That’s properly off euphoric highs but additionally properly above the sub-1.0 ranges that marked the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The bear cycle camp reads this as a market that has cooled however has not but reached the deep worth zone. If MVRV compresses towards 1.0, that would verify a basic bear trajectory.
The SOPR (spent output revenue ratio) tells a comparable story. SOPR measures whether or not on-chain cash are being bought at a revenue or a loss.
When SOPR is above 1.0, the typical coin bought is worthwhile. When it drops beneath 1.0, the typical coin is underwater.
November’s sell-off pushed SOPR beneath 1.0 for the primary time since summer season, signaling that short-term holders had been realizing losses.
The depth and length have some analysts evaluating it to early 2022, when SOPR stayed suppressed for months.
The RHODL (realized cap HODL) waves break down Bitcoin’s realized cap by age cohorts. When long-term holders begin spending at elevated charges, it usually indicators a top.
Latest RHODL data present long-term holder provide has been declining since mid-year, a sample in keeping with distribution into power.
The November correction accelerated that pattern, with older cohorts transferring cash on-chain at costs above $90,000.
Miner flows add one other layer. Miners are structurally lengthy Bitcoin and have a tendency to carry throughout bull markets. When miner outflows spike, it indicators stress.
CryptoQuant’s miner reserve data exhibits reserves have been declining since October, and miner pockets balances hit multi-year lows in late November.
Lastly, stablecoin liquidity. The bear cycle camp factors to declining stablecoin provide on exchanges as a signal that dry powder is leaving the system. The whole stablecoin market cap has been flat to down since mid-November.
With out recent fiat-backed liquidity prepared to purchase dips, Bitcoin lacks gasoline for one more leg up.
The center floor: deep correction, not secular bear
Others see the identical stress however cease wanting calling a accomplished cycle top.
SOPR, realized-price bands, and MVRV are now not in an euphoric zone. But, traditionally, classical bear market bottoms happen a lot nearer to the combination realized value than right now’s ranges.
Moreover, ETF outflows and lowered stablecoin liquidity helped drive the worst two-month drawdown since mid-2022. But, Glassnode’s MVRV Z-Rating remains to be not in oversold territory, and whale accumulation round $90,000 suggests the market is at an inflection level fairly than clearly in a new secular downtrend.
This camp acknowledges the symptoms have cooled however argues the market remains to be structurally totally different from prior bear cycles. Bitcoin has not damaged its combination realized value, which sits round $50,000 to $55,000.
Derivatives open curiosity reset from $46 billion to $28 billion, flushing out overleveraged longs and setting the stage for a cleaner rally if liquidity improves.
The bull market reset thesis
A Glassnode-based roundup framed the late-November drop into the low-$80,000s as “2025’s strongest BTC buy zone,” noting dense realized-price clusters the place long-term holders re-added publicity after pressured liquidations and derivatives open curiosity washed out.
Trakx’s Nov. 28 month-to-month assessment says November’s slide “appears like a regular bull cycle pullback, not a new bear market,” arguing that so long as international liquidity continues to rise, the broader digital-asset bull pattern ought to stay intact.
Moreover, open curiosity has reset, and ETF inflows resumed with a modest $50 million aggregated internet influx for December as of Dec. 3.
On this backdrop, a rising stablecoin provide may assist a push again by the $93,000 to $96,000 resistance zone if the Fed delivers.
World internet liquidity: the lacking variable
That is the place Ki’s name hinges. He argues that “with out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle,” explicitly tying on-chain stress to a deteriorating liquidity backdrop.
A Sahm Capital piece on Nov. 25 harassed that, not like prior cycles, international internet liquidity has been falling for years beneath the burden of inflation, charge hikes, and quantitative tightening, which has “suppressed cash move and upside potential all through this cycle.”
I/O Fund’s Beth Kindig wrote this week that their mannequin exhibits international liquidity stalling and “establishing for a reversal,” a sample they are saying traditionally aligns with main Bitcoin tops and suggests we’re within the closing leg of the multi-year bull fairly than the early innings.
On the opposite facet, Bitwise’s early-December outlook argues that international liquidity development “stays sturdy” and that valuations present “no proof of a blow-off section,” explicitly utilizing that to reject a full bear-market transition.
Glassnode’s new institutional observe for the fourth quarter with Fasanara provides a extra impartial take: Bitcoin has retraced as international liquidity tightens, however the report focuses on shifting market construction fairly than declaring a definitive macro top.
The decision: conditional bear, not confirmed
The on-chain data exhibits stress. MVRV has cooled, SOPR has dipped beneath 1.0, long-term holders have distributed, miners have bought reserves, and stablecoin liquidity has stalled.
These are all in keeping with the opening section of a bear market.
However they’re additionally in keeping with a deep correction inside a bull market, particularly one by which leverage was excessive and ETF flows had been risky.
The important thing distinction is what occurs subsequent with liquidity.
If international internet liquidity continues to contract and the Fed holds charges increased for longer, Ki’s bear cycle thesis positive factors weight. If liquidity stabilizes or rebounds and ETF inflows resume, the bull reset camp wins.
Proper now, the data suggests Bitcoin is at an inflection level, not a confirmed top. The on-chain indicators are flashing yellow, not crimson. And the liquidity backdrop is contested, with credible voices on each side.
