Bitcoin’s long-standing narrative as “digital gold” is being put to the check as its latest worth motion more and more resembles that of a high-risk progress asset slightly than a conventional protected haven, in keeping with new analysis from Grayscale.
Report writer Zach Pandl stated on Tuesday that whereas Grayscale nonetheless views Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term retailer of worth resulting from its mounted provide and independence from central banking authorities, latest market conduct suggests in any other case.
“Bitcoin’s short-term worth actions haven’t been tightly correlated with gold or different valuable metals,” Pandl wrote, pointing to file rallies in bullion and silver costs.
As a substitute, the evaluation discovered that Bitcoin has developed a powerful correlation with software program shares, significantly since early 2024. That sector has lately come below intense promoting strain amid considerations that synthetic intelligence might disrupt or render many software program companies out of date.
The report suggests Bitcoin’s rising sensitivity to equities and progress property displays its deeper integration into conventional monetary markets, pushed partially by institutional participation, exchange-traded fund exercise and shifting macroeconomic danger sentiment.
The shift comes as Bitcoin has skilled a couple of 50% drawdown from its October peak above $126,000. The decline unfolded in several waves, starting with a historic October 2025 liquidation event, adopted by renewed promoting in late November and once more in late January 2026. Grayscale additionally pointed to “motivated US sellers” in latest weeks, citing persistent worth reductions on Coinbase.
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A part of Bitcoin’s ongoing evolution
Bitcoin’s latest failure to reside as much as its safe-haven narrative shouldn’t be considered as a setback however slightly as a part of the asset’s ongoing evolution, in keeping with Grayscale.
Pandl stated it will have been unrealistic to count on Bitcoin to displace gold as a monetary asset in such a brief interval.
“Gold has been used as cash for 1000’s of years and served because the spine of the worldwide financial system till the early Nineteen Seventies,” Pandl wrote.
Whereas Bitcoin’s failure to achieve comparable financial standing is “central to the funding thesis,” he stated, it might evolve in that path over time as the worldwide financial system turns into more and more digitized via synthetic intelligence, autonomous brokers and tokenized financial markets.
Within the close to time period, Bitcoin’s restoration might rely on recent capital getting into the market, both via renewed ETF inflows or a return of retail buyers. Market maker Wintermute said retail participation has lately been concentrated in AI-related shares and progress narratives, limiting near-term demand for crypto property.
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