Is the market underestimating the potential affect of the upcoming Morgan Stanley spot Bitcoin ETF? Nicely, Strategy CEO Phong Le thinks so.
In keeping with him, the wealth administration section of the funding financial institution may simply flip BlackRock’s IBIT.
He added,
Morgan Stanley Wealth Administration oversees about $8 trillion in AUM and recommends 0–4% bitcoin allocation. A 2% allocation would characterize $160 billion, ~3X the scale of IBIT. $MSBT: Monster Bitcoin.
For perspective, BlacRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) at the moment leads the section with a cumulative web influx of $63 billion and property beneath administration (AUM) of $55 billion. Therefore, the $160 billion projection could be thrice greater than IBIT’s present AUM.
‘Nonetheless early?’ – Why Morgan Stanley is betting on BTC
Because the first wave of U.S. spot BTC ETFs debuted in early 2024, Morgan Stanley has primarily been a distributor, permitting advisors to advocate third-party choices comparable to BlackRock’s IBIT. For this, it captures commissions for the entry.
As of Q3 2025, BlackRock’s IBIT was printing almost $191 million in administration charges and was the third-highest revenue-generating product in its ETF line-up.
A number of months later, Morgan Stanley utilized to instantly provide its BTC ETF product (MSBT). It refiled the appliance and will quickly start buying and selling. This may ultimately assist it seize each the distribution and administration charges.
Because the U.S. spot BTC ETFs enter their third 12 months, and IBIT’s dominance continues, one would marvel why Morgan Stanley is all of the sudden making its daring wager within the house now.
In keeping with Amy Odelnburg, the agency’s head of crypto, the adoption was ‘nonetheless early,’ including that present demand is usually from self-directed buyers reasonably than wealth-advisor-managed accounts.
Even the distribution of those ETFs, about 80% of what we see on our platform, is coming via the self-directed enterprise.
The agency is eyeing BTC lending, buying and selling, and even custody, and could be the primary U.S. financial institution to instantly provide a BTC ETF.
That stated, Joe Takayama of Backpack cautioned that the $160 billion projected demand may nonetheless be unrealistic, as allocation could possibly be beneath 2% and even near zero. In the meantime, the sturdy restoration in BTC ETFs seen in early March has reversed, with consecutive day by day outflows over the previous three days of buying and selling.
Amid the continuing macro uncertainty, a sustained risk-off mode by ETF buyers may derail BTC’s restoration. On the time of writing, the asset traded at $70K.
Ultimate Abstract
- Strategy CEO Phong Le projected that the Morgan Stanley BTC ETF may simply set off $160 billion in demand.
- Morgan Stanley stated that institutional crypto adoption continues to be early, with present demand primarily pushed by self-directed buyers and never advisor-managed accounts.
